MODULE 7 CLOSURE
Spring 2010
Compiled by Greg Kinney
“MUDDIEST ITEMS”
QUESTION:
The muddiest part of the module was the concept of TS (tracking signal). I’m still not entirely sure what it’s relevance is and how it applies to the budgeting process
ANSWER:
This is in the family of project controls techniques. It is a way of trending deviations from the control estimate as the project progresses. This can indicate that there’s something wrong with the estimate or underlying assumptions as time goes on. This is related to the earned value metrics, but it really gets into the details of what the value of the estimate are that may lead to difference between earned and planned value. You’ll get more into this in Chapter 11. The tracking really is too late for the control budget but it is relevant for potential adjustment of the budget, and it may be useful in improving future estimating.
QUESTION:
The muddiest thing from this module was some of the complex math formulas from the end of the chapter. It would seems that someone would really have to spend quite a bit of time working on these to come up with a proper estimate. That’s why I’m sure there must be spread sheets for this type of thing out there!
ANSWER:
Of course there are.
QUESTION:
The discussion on project development and life-cycle “selection” based on the subordinates or superiors estimate was the least clear item in this module. I can’t picture either party discussing the project in this sense, except to maybe say “it looks like you’ll be really busy towards this point, maybe we should move this (an item or deadline) to … here.” This isn’t life-cycle selection; it is resource allocation and management.
ANSWER:
I agree with you. In fact, in my nearly 30 years as a professional working in projects and engineering, I can’t recall a single conversation where the project life-cycle really came up as a major issue. I can recall many conversations where the many specific headaches associated with funding, designing, implementing and closeout were discussed. In that sense, I must admit that in my experience – slanted heavily toward civil and mechanical engineering and construction – I can’t really relate to what the authors are saying.
QUESTION:
The muddiest part is the use of “MAD/MAR TS” technique to analysis the error and bias during the cost estimation. My confusion is that I think this technique is a post-monitoring process rather than a real-time control tool. Therefore, even we can use it properly, it’s still too late for a project which we really care about how to correctly budget before its implementation. Is my understanding wrong?
ANSWER:
This is certainly in the family of project controls techniques. However, it is as close to a real time tool as we can get. It is a way of trending deviations from the control estimate as the project progresses. This can indicate that there’s something wrong with the estimate or underlying assumptions as time goes on. This is related to the earned value metrics, but it really gets into the details of what the value of the estimate are that may lead to difference between earned and planned value. You’ll get more into this in Chapter 11.
QUESTION:
The least clear thing I learned from this module was what/who would use the form on Page 341. The text states project managers often find this form helpful to estimate level of resource needs, as well as whether or not they are available. It seems like this information, however, should already be in the project manager’s head.
ANSWER:
Wow, that’s a lot to keep in your head! Particularly if you have multiple projects you’re managing and lots of resources to track. Bear in mind, also, that as PM you’re probably having to acquire resources from others. This is part of the problem with the “responsibility without authority” dilemma of PMs. In the end, you are going to have to justify what resources you need and why you need them, which is why resource sheets like these become indispensible communication tools and, in effect, hammers to get what you need to get work done.
QUESTION:
I have done a small program budget, but not a project budget involving many different functional departments. So all this information is useful because the job I am in now has a budget request period, and it helps to understand how I could put together an accurate budget request. The section on improving cost estimation and the formulas for things like a learning curve are very useful. The book discussed some of the problems of gaming the budget and rigged bids, and some possible solutions, but I am still not clear on practical applications on how to protect a budget estimate from these. Following a WBS from top-down or bottom-up, you are still going to run time estimate inflation.
ANSWER:
That’s true and both are subject to inaccuracy. The text just makes the point that there are viewpoints and biases involved on both the top down and bottom up side, and that each has strengths and weaknesses. The ideal is to run both, vet them out and make them converge. But that’s not what usually happens.